Corona Virus - Stay Safe

  • Throwing stats about like this is ludicrous, they can be selected and spun to fit any narrative you like. It's all about clicks.


    Same figures from uk today, being spun against the vax hesitant under 50s includes the fact that 70% of over 50's who died from (with) Delta were vaccinated. Then you have to understand the sample size, the period over which the data is collected. Which vaccine, when, who. Most of the people going to these gigs will be in that demographic, if you think you're 100% safe, think again.


    If everyone is vaccinated, 100% of deaths will be vaccinated.

    Edited 2 times, last by vl1 ().

  • This is not the case in UK though. Over 50's that are fully vaccinated have the highest rate of deaths.

    Could you please provide a link to the source of those numbers?

    I have grown extremely suspicious about any Covid numbers given without a source. No offense to you.

    ...cried a voice in the crowd.


  • Could you please provide a link to the source of those numbers?

    I have grown extremely suspicious about any Covid numbers given without a source. No offense to you.

    Would it not be so much better to simply ignore all those numbers. Source or no source. Numbers are just numbers. They do not solve any problem.

    No!

  • Throwing stats about like this is ludicrous

    Should we roll them across the floor? Or gently place them on the table, perhaps?

    If everyone is vaccinated, 100% of deaths will be vaccinated.

    This is true, but there will very few of them (deaths due to the disease against which the people were vaccinated that is). It is also true to say that 100% of the people who in whom death due to the disease was prevented will be alive. Until they're not, of course.

  • Throwing stats about like this is ludicrous, they can be selected and spun to fit any narrative you like. It's all about clicks.


    Same figures from uk today, being spun against the vax hesitant under 50s includes the fact that 70% of over 50's who died from (with) Delta were vaccinated. Then you have to understand the sample size, the period over which the data is collected. Which vaccine, when, who. Most of the people going to these gigs will be in that demographic, if you think you're 100% safe, think again.


    If everyone is vaccinated, 100% of deaths will be vaccinated.

    You've just raised a common epidemiological fallacy that's bandied about with Covid-19. (your last sentence). One thing that I hope we can agree to is how badly much of the Covid-19 information has been disseminated to the broader public. That made it very easy for the disinformation to increase exponentially. Most people are numerically and statistically illiterate so abiding by the KISS principle (keep it simple stupid) is de rigueur. By the way, should we lose track of things, we all love Genesis and hope to see them soon lol.

  • Not clear if you are agreeing or disagreeing, if the latter, do explain.


    As for stats, there's a whole industry out there producing and regurgitating contradictory numbers endlessly, there can never be any clarity with this amount of data floating about. Which is quite useful if you're a politician, tell them anything, throw up 100's of slides that nobody can comprehend, and leave the room quickly before anyone asks a pertinent question.

  • Not clear if you are agreeing or disagreeing, if the latter, do explain.


    As for stats, there's a whole industry out there producing and regurgitating contradictory numbers endlessly, there can never be any clarity with this amount of data floating about. Which is quite useful if you're a politician, tell them anything, throw up 100's of slides that nobody can comprehend, and leave the room quickly before anyone asks a pertinent question.

    Agreeing! BTW, I have a PhD in Statistics and I work in pharma. As for politicians, just as I wouldn't ask an electrician to do bypass surgery on my arteries, I won't ask a politician (usually a numerically illiterate lawyer to compound matters) to interpret statistics for me lol. Peace.

  • Agreeing! BTW, I have a PhD in Statistics and I work in pharma. As for politicians, just as I wouldn't ask an electrician to do bypass surgery on my arteries, I won't ask a politician (usually a numerically illiterate lawyer to compound matters) to interpret statistics for me lol. Peace.

    Well, true about politicians and stats, but it’s also the case that medical professionals who know more about Covid than you (a PhD in Statistics) or me (a PhD in Political Science) are the most important people reviewing the data and making policy recommendations. Ultimately the problem is when politicians ignore or twist those findings and recommendations. However, that problem is fairly easily resolved: one need only skip the politician middleman and go straight to the scientific source (e.g. in the US go to the CDC’s website and look at the numbers yourself).

  • It's not a huge surprise, and NOT evidence of vaccine inefficacy. The number of people > 50 years old vaccinated is much greater than the number unvaccinated, so even if a tiny proportion of the vaccinated get infected and sick they might outnumber the unvaccinated. Then the unvaccinated may be more likely to use non-pharmaceutical interventions like distancing and masks bringing their risk closer to that of the vaccinated.


    BTW this is shocking.


    https://www.reddit.com/r/Flori…_careful_whether_you_are/



    I hate to preach, it's actually unhelpful but still - get vaccinated if you're not, encourage anyone you know who isn't to do so, and reject in the strongest possible terms the politics of Ron DeSantis and his ilk, or anyone espousing those views.

  • Not clear if you are agreeing or disagreeing, if the latter, do explain.


    As for stats, there's a whole industry out there producing and regurgitating contradictory numbers endlessly, there can never be any clarity with this amount of data floating about. Which is quite useful if you're a politician, tell them anything, throw up 100's of slides that nobody can comprehend, and leave the room quickly before anyone asks a pertinent question.

    If the former however, keep quiet, cos he likes people to just agree! ^^


    Ignore the whole industry out there. Saturday morning, BBC Breakfast, around 9.10 am, 2 of the best people in the biz appear regularly and explain it all in simple, easy to understand terms. Much better than listening to the drivel peddled on here by the same old faces.

    Ian


    Works with chess - Not with life

  • You know, posts on this and other threads, about the Covid situation, and how it has made concerts going/planning so difficult, does make me wonder:


    How would all these keyboard warriors/self-appointed experts/conspiracy theorists/moaners have coped with nearly 6 years of hardship and uncertainty over whether we WOULD "get through this" during World War 2? God forbid anything like that should happen again, but if it did, how would they cope with the food rationing, restriction of freedom, lack of even many of the basics, and general air of futility? Personally, I doubt they would!


    Thank God we had Captain Sir Tom to remind us what real people can do.

    Ian


    Works with chess - Not with life

  • You know, posts on this and other threads, about the Covid situation, and how it has made concerts going/planning so difficult, does make me wonder:


    How would all these keyboard warriors/self-appointed experts/conspiracy theorists/moaners have coped with nearly 6 years of hardship and uncertainty over whether we WOULD "get through this" during World War 2? God forbid anything like that should happen again, but if it did, how would they cope with the food rationing, restriction of freedom, lack of even many of the basics, and general air of futility? Personally, I doubt they would!


    Thank God we had Captain Sir Tom to remind us what real people can do.

    I agree, and often say this. It's ridiculous the way some people carry on about mask wearing and distancing!

  • You know, posts on this and other threads, about the Covid situation, and how it has made concerts going/planning so difficult, does make me wonder:


    How would all these keyboard warriors/self-appointed experts/conspiracy theorists/moaners have coped with nearly 6 years of hardship and uncertainty over whether we WOULD "get through this" during World War 2? God forbid anything like that should happen again, but if it did, how would they cope with the food rationing, restriction of freedom, lack of even many of the basics, and general air of futility? Personally, I doubt they would!


    Thank God we had Captain Sir Tom to remind us what real people can do.

    You want a really crazy (maybe not so crazy :)) post fox feeder? I agree with you that what we're going through now pales in comparison to what past generations have endured, whether war, the pandemics (1918), etc. However, I am of the opinion that the current generation (I'm knocking on 60 so not sure that I fit in that category) is completely riddled with anxieties, depression, etc. due to cell phones and social media. And yes, the irony of typing that statement on a chat board has not escaped me. There's actually research (no, I have not read it) which suggests that most kids today (i.e. anyone who's grown up with the internet, social media and devices - i.e. not me) have this fairly strong level of anxiety about them. I won't even mention the attention deficit disorder which is horrible. Everyone on their damn smartphones every 3 seconds. That has to have repercussions, not only behaviorally, but also neurologically. All that to say that people have such a thin skin now that everything gets blown out of proportion. Once I retire, the smart phone is getting run over by my car; that will be one of the happiest days of my life.

  • Part of the problem with data concerning deaths is that no two countries count covid related deaths in the same way.


    In the UK, as with some other countries, any health condition suffered by a person at the time of their death is added to the death certificate. If someone has advanced cancer, diabetes, a missing limb and covid they all get added. Anyone who dies within 28 days of testing positive for covid is counted in our "deaths with covid" stats....and note they are not "deaths from covid". Sometimes covid outright killed them. Sometimes it was a big part of the combination of conditions which pushed them over the edge. And occasionally it's not relevant. I personally know of a case where a man was passenger in a huge car accident, and died of his injuries two days later. While the hospital attempted to save his life he received a covid test, and this was positive. He was asymptomatic. But he's included in the "deaths with covid" stats.


    However.....meta-analysis of worldwide data clearly shows that you are about 90% less likely to die if you catch covid, if you've been fully vaccinated (two jabs of AstraZeneca or Pfizer). There's insufficient data for the other vaccines such as Moderna and J&J. But the jury is not out on those two. You're 90% less likely to die, at any age. They're incredibly effective, given that the target was 50%.


    British hospitals aren't full of covid patients yet. At the height of the first wave over 40,000 people were in hospital with covid here. Right now it's 6,000. Most of these are younger, unvaccinated people who recover and are released within two weeks. I hear first hand from Texas that people who have suffered heart attacks are unable to call an ambulance because they're busy transporting people who are sick with covid and then need to be deep cleaned....and are turned away from hospitals because there are no beds due to the hospitals being full to capacity with covid patients. Again, this happened to someone I personally know just last week. And they are not the only one. I'm hearing this from people in Austin and DFW.


    As for keeping safe at big concerts, you can guarantee that in the UK every attendee will have to demonstrate that they've been fully vaccinated (more than two weeks since 2nd jab of an approved vaccine)....and/or have natural immunity from a recent (<6 month) covid infection....and/or have taken a negative covid test (probably lateral flow). It worked for football matches and the F1 grand prix at Silverstone....at the latter, 120k people were present on race day and there was *no spread*. With the football the only spread was public "fan zones" where immunity could not be checked and people shouted excitedly in close proximity and hugged. At the stadium itself...no spread.


    I gather this isn't the case at several American sports and concert venues. And of course vaccination levels are far lower there.


    Of course *some* people who are fully vaccinated will be unlucky and get sick, and some will die. THat's the nature of vaccines. None is 100% effective. Indeed the polio vaccine, an unqualified success, is about the same efficacy as the Pfizer covid vaccine. If you take someone of any age who is immunocompromised, being vaccinated is going to have less of an effect for them than someone like me who has a cast iron immune system which has already fought off some potentially fatal illnesses. I don't particularly worry about catching covid myself. I worry about passing it onto the people in my life who are on immunosuppressant medication...we're all double jabbed but they remain potentially vulnerable. And they're not all old fogeys who have had their time. One is 36, and if no idiot infects her with covid she's likely got another 40+ years of high quality life ahead. She happens to be married to me.

  • Lots of claims there, suggest you pop on PHE website for starters to check them.


    The idea that there was no spread at mass events is wrong for a start. Vaccines don't provide immunity, vaccinated people can catch and spread covid, they help to reduce hospitalisation and death.

    Edited 2 times, last by vl1 ().