Haven't Mike and Tony all but confirmed they're doing the first two verses of Fading Lights....because it feels appropriate now....
the guy who started the "Many Too many" rumour has since stated it was a joke, and there's no chance of it being performed.
Nic has, from memory, specifically mentioned Mama, HBTS, Apolcalypse, Invisible Touch, Land of Confusion. It's been heavily hinted by Tony and Phil that the latter's objection to the lyrics of Abacab has been overcome.
So we have a partial set. Mike stated back in March 2020 that he strongly wanted a set no longer than two hours but I begin to wonder if they're going to eek it out...or have a main set of two hours, break then have 15-20 minutes of encores.
I am not convinced Los Endos has made it this time. Nic omitted to mention it by name, and as we've already established he's specifically naming songs that are in the set and not naming ones they rehearsed and didn't make it. he did, however, state that the two most difficult songs they rehearsed (drum wise) didn't make the cut. And I am prepared to wager those are Los Endos and Watcher of The Skies. If they seriously rehearsed the latter (rather than a couple of attempts and giving it up) and don't perform it at some point then that's a crying shame....but it is what it is. Genesis don't mess with the set much and throw in few real surprises.
As for the American tour not being part of the original plan. that's simply not correct. they always planned a world tour but didn't announce all the plans. The original idea was to tour much the way Phil did from 2017-2019....do a few weeks in one country/continent....take a month or two off....tour another part of the world....take a month or two off....tour another continent and so on. It was made clear that was the plan but they had originally wanted to keep from making any announcements about concerts outside of UK/IRL until they'd played the first leg....decided how they felt. Covid kind of forced their hand, they'd clearly always intended to play the USA towards the end of 2021 and I am betting they intend to tour continental Europe in the first quarter of 2022....late winter or very early spring.
What I do wonder is if they might shake up the set a little. Nic mentioned rehearsing up to 40 songs of which "about 25" made the final list. Knowing this might be their final tour, even if they stretch it out over two or three years, they could decide to swap out a couple of songs after each tour leg and rehearse a couple of replacements for the next leg. But that's not typical Genesis style.