I saw this post n Reddit from a member named lightningrider40 and I thought it was worth sharing. He did a great job of summarizing what many of us long term fans may have considered regarding what is possible/likely with the tour. None of this is confirmed or anything we don’t already know or have discussed beforehand.
Here it is:
lightningrider4078d
The Last Domino? Setlist - What We Can Expect
I've been looking at other people's comments on what they're expecting the set to look like and I wanted to throw my own predictions out there. There are comments I've seen that say things like "they're only going to play the hits, plus a couple of longer tracks" and I have to disagree. So rather than just give a one-sentence summary of what they'll play, I felt like making a whole post on my thoughts. A bit indulgent maybe, but most of us here listen to ten-minute songs regularly so...
Anyway, first off I'd like to set the basic parameters on what will make a song more or less likely:
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The band - in particular, Phil's decreased vocal range, Nic being the only drummer and the new backing vocalists. The last is obviously to offset the effects of the first, but all three affect what songs could or couldn't be played.
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Previous tours - Our closest comparison is probably the 2007 tour, at least in terms of setlist composition. We can take that into consideration to look at older versus newer material, or shorter versus longer. Aside from that tour we can go back to the Calling All Stations tour to see what Genesis tried with just one drummer, or to Phil and Mike's recent tours away from Genesis to see what Genesis songs they played.
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The audience - First of all, it's going to be people who are already huge Genesis fans, so they're going to cover all their bases, from hit singles to extended suites. Also, the tour was initially planned for just the UK and Ireland, and it doesn't look like they have time to change the set, so the setlist might be more geared towards that audience (for instance, songs that were hits in the US but not so much in the UK are less likely to be considered).
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Rumours and teasers - We can take hints from songs have featured in the trailers for the tour, and which ones have been floating around the rumour mill.
Okay, enough waffling on. Time to get to the actual songs.
Right out the bat I think we can exclude anything from From Genesis to Revelation or Calling All Stations. Genesis have done their best to pretend both albums never happened, and nothing from either has been played live outside of the first couple of years after release. So that leaves us 13 albums that they could choose from, give or take. I'll separate these into three categories for convenience: hits, live staples and surprises.
THE HITS
Obviously there will be plenty of these - but not an absolutely overpowering amount. There are a few that are absolutely untouchable, that have been in basically every setlist since release and have been heavily hinted at leading up to the tour: Follow You Follow Me, Turn It On Again, Mama, Invisible Touch, Land of Confusion, No Son of Mine and I Can't Dance. Aside from these, there are plenty more that stand a chance of making the cut.
Tonight, Tonight, Tonight, Throwing It All Away and Hold On My Heart all made it into the final set last time, and all stand a good chance of returning this year; Tonight, Tonight, Tonight is likely to be an abridged version like in '92 and '07 should it return though.
Out of the songs that were left out last time, Abacab, That's All and Jesus He Knows Me are probably the ones that stand the best chance of returning. According to Tony, they were all rehearsed back in 2007; any of them could well be in the set for this tour.
There's an outside chance of Misunderstanding or In Too Deep appearing - both are well-known and successful enough - but with the amount of songs competing and the aforementioned UK-centricity that I imagine the set could have, I wouldn't bet on them. Same story with a lot of less recognisable hits - apologies to the one guy holding out for No Reply At All.
THE LIVE STAPLES
As anyone who knows about Genesis' live set knows, their show is not all about the hits. We can expect to see a high enough number of album tracks... but exactly which ones isn't so clear.
Obviously Domino is a guarantee because of the tour name. The Home by the Sea suite is also likely; it's been played on every tour since release. The first trailer also clearly featured Behind the Lines - since it wasn't transposed into a lower key it's safe to assume we'll hear the Duke's Intro medley like the last tour (so only the instrumental intro merged with Duke's End).
Of course, there will have to be some older stuff too. I Know What I Like is probably the safest bet in this regard - it will also most likely include the Stagnationtheme as on past tours (this is almost certainly the only bit of music from Trespass they will play). The instrumental section from Firth of Fifth is likely enough as well, since it's been played on almost all of their tours since the mid-80s, even on the CAS tour without the double drums.
The In the Cage medley is another probable pick, even without Phil doubling up on drums - though the parts of it aren't nailed down. Afterglow would almost certainly be part of it, as would The Cinema Show - Mike can be seen in the second trailer playing what is surely the guitar riff from it. As for other bits, they could play some of Duke's Travels like last time (though they might want to shake things up), or The Colony of Slippermen, or ...In That Quiet Earth, or maybe even something they haven't done before. Nic Collins even mentioned in an interview that they had rehearsed the last parts of Supper's Ready... could they be trying a medley ending in that, like in 1986? It's a long shot, but we have reason to dream.
Speaking of Nic, he also mentioned trying Los Endos. Out of Genesis' entire catalogue, it and the drum duet that often came before it are the things they played the most - but also the most likely to be gone now that Phil can't really drum. The drum duet is basically out of the question, but Endos still has a bit of a chance. It's very up in the air though.
A more likely entry would be The Carpet Crawlers, which works on all grounds - it is good as a standalone, it suits Phil's current range, and basically everyone knows and loves it. In terms of single songs from this time, Ripples is another candidate from last time, though its place isn't as secure as Crawlers.
And last but not least, an Old Medley like in 1983-84 or '92 is a possibility. This could include some of the songs from before like Firth and IKWIL, and also other fan-favourites. Dance on a Volcano and The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway spring out to me immediately, though both are likely to be very shortened like in 92. There are other songs that could appear if they do play this medley: if we look at past tours we can find the intro of Eleventh Earl of Mar, Squonk, and the end of The Musical Box. But sadly I would have to doubt any of these, especially The Musical Box given Phil's voice. Still, they can't fully be ruled out. Nor can an acoustic medley like 98, with Dancing with the Moonlit Knight's intro (besides, this would be much easier for Phil to sing) but by this point we're getting into pure speculation. Which really belongs in our next section:
THE SURPRISES
Almost every Genesis tour has had some sort of curveball in the setlist - who'd have expected Duke's Intro from 2007 before it was revealed? With that in mind, here are some songs which are rumoured or plausible but which are really just hunches.
First off, back to the longer material: It is possible that they go for another later epic - Fading Lights is a suggestion I've seen and I think it is certainly possible - no guarantees though. Driving the Last Spikeprobably deserves a mention in this regard too, but it is much less likely.
Next are some things which have floated around the place but would be pretty unexpected. A while back an image was posted of Genesis rehearsing, with a computer displaying "New Duchess". There's a good chance they'll rework it somehow if that's true.
There was also rumour floating around about Many Too Many being rehearsed. Back in 2007 Tony apparently suggested both it and Blood on the Rooftops - neither of which they have ever played live - but both were voted down. It might be the case that they play one this time.
And that's about all I have, but who knows? There are a good few songs that could get played, and when it comes to surprises the whole point is that we can't necessarily guess them. If you have a guess at anything they could do, comment away. But that's about all that I have. Whatever they play, I'm looking forward to seeing them.
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