Will the Tour Be Postponed?

Hello and welcome.

Sadly I think it's becoming more likely the tour will be postponed. If nothing else, surely the band will have to have had suspended all rehearsal/tech/planning activities for the foreseeable future. Even if events are permitted in Nov/Dec how prepared will they be?

There's an existing tour thread and this topic came up here.

Have fun having a look around the forum and getting stuck into the various topics.

I think the most likely thing is it will be.

There is no cure and no vaccine. The only thing that works until we have either is to reduce the amount of people an infected person can infect (AKA the R0) to less than 1. This causes the local spread to 'shrink'. The only ways to get the R0 below 1 is through strict social distancing, or extremely thorough identification of cases and isolation of them and any contacts.

The latter is barely possible in the best case (which would be a very good test to identify cases and then a good system of notifying their contacts, clear instructions for them to self quarantine AND an understanding, compliant populace that will do so). The former (social distancing) is just about being done effectively in most places. An authoritarian state can like China can implement it very effectively. For Western democracies it's a serious challenge.

Short story: until we have a vaccine, we need very strict social distancing, or an acceptance of resurgent waves of COVID19. A huge concert = R0 >> 0. Unless the attendees are all immune. We can't possibly know that by Nov 2020. So my assumption is it will be delayed.

Final thought: the current record for developing a vaccine is 5 years, for Ebola. The resources being hurled at this are greater which might help.

I think that the band made a decision in july. There’s a chance that will be happen but more likely in...2021.

It's a shame for those in the music industry that rely on concerts as a means of revenue. Their cd sales is not enough to keep certain bands afloat.

I know band members of Genesis probably have enough money put aside to keep them eating very well.

I imagine that tours will start up again in 2021.

Quote from Wayne

Thank you both for your very interesting and insightful comments, I have also booked for Steve Hackett @ Scunthorpe and Bradford and The Musical Box at the York Barbican. Likewise, I feel the Hackett shows especially will be possibly having the same postponement?. I don’t understand though why other artists are just moving their concerts back to August or September which does seem a little presumptive that things are going to be back to some normality quickly?

People are making the best guess they can. I agree August/Sept vanishingly unlikely for a concert. There may be an insurance reason for picking a date like that.

Apart from the issues I mentioned above, even if we get a vaccine (which will take at least a year from now) normal will almost certainly not be normal. Confidence will be incredibly low. Everyone will be nervous of going to a concert. Most people will either be sick, broke or worried about being sick or broke.

It sucks to an extraordinary degree. In the meantime I'd love to see the band pull out a zoom performance of five or ten tunes. An old band this big could do some good with something like that.

I guess moving the gigs back removes the need to refund for now?

Quote from foxfeeder

I guess moving the gigs back removes the need to refund for now?

That's exactly what's happening here in the States.

Ticketmaster or should I call them by their appropriate name of Ticketbastard, has changed their refund policy. It now only covers cancelled events where before it covered postponed and rescheduled ones too.

Most shows have only been postponed ( with no actual makeup dates announced) so TB is sitting on a lot of cash in the mean time. They may not be making money putting on shows but they're sure as hell making money on from all the interest our cash sitting in their bank accounts is getting for them.

Big agencies sitting on piles of cash for popular tours for the best part of a year isn't something exclusive to the current circumstances. Some big tours go on sale 10+ months in advance and the agencies have that revenue banked for a long time anyway.

If this tour is put back the agency may well have to deal with thousands of people returning tickets they can't use anymore.

Quote from Wayne

isn’t it now the case that ticketmaster don’t have to refund unless the gigs are cancelled as mentioned above?

I don't know but that would be extremely harsh on people who can no longer attend following the complete reschedule of the tour.

Quote from Backdrifter

I don't know but that would be extremely harsh on people who can no longer attend following the complete reschedule of the tour.

I and thousands of others agree and have voiced their gripes but that hasn't helped yet. Maybe if more and more people flooded Ticketbastard with their complaints it might help but I honestly doubt it.

TB holds all the cards in this and as evidenced by them changing their refund policy recently to only refund for cancelled shows, I don't think they care what the public thinks. If they cared about us they wouldn't have changed the policy from postponed/rescheduled to only cancelled. As long as they can hold onto our cash as long as possible, they'll do it.

Even if some type of legislation is passed to force their hand, they'll still have made millions in interest in the mean time. It's a win/win for them and while it's a dirty move, it's a shrewd business one.

I have never been a fan of his music or the man himself even though we're both New Jersey natives but I have to give Jon Bon Jovi his due today.

He announced the cancellation of his 2020 tour instead of his postponing it. The sole reason being it will enable ticket holders to now get refunds and as a way to combat the Live Nation/Ticketbastard refund policy change.

Bravo Jon and maybe other artists will do the same.

Quote from Wayne

It sure seems like it is. All they did was drop the postponed and rescheduled wording from their policy. It's not like they've eliminated refunds altogether. It's a pretty low thing to do but when have they ever not been sleazy?

I'm sure with all their money they've had their legal teams go over this and think they're in the clear legally.

I didn't copy JBJ's official statement but off the top of my head he made reference to getting his fans their money back in order to ease some of their financial strains from the pandemic and made specific mention of using the money to buy food and essentials. A clear shot across the bow of Live Nation/Ticketbastard.

Here's hoping they wake up and do the right thing.

Quote from Wayne

isn’t it now the case that ticketmaster don’t have to refund unless the gigs are cancelled as mentioned above?, my partner read somewhere that they recently changed their terms and conditions?. So returning tickets isn’t an option if you for example can’t attend on so and so a date due to a prior work commitment for example. I may be wrong in that. I guess it could all be a technical matter of when Ticketmaster changed their terms and conditions?, if you bought tickets for such and such a show and the terms of purchase changed after you bought those tickets then maybe they have to honour the original purchase terms. I don’t know maybe someone else more experienced can comment?. I have around 10 concerts lined up over the coming months and fingers crossed they don’t reschedule or push back and I end up with two shows on the same night!. Saying that I’m supposed to be seeing Jeff Beck next Month and it’s still showing as tickets are on sale so it’s all up in the air!.